GrainCorp (ASX: GNC) Holds FY26 Guidance as SAP Upgrade Slips

GrainCorp has maintained its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance even as it delayed a major technology rollout and flagged higher spending next year.

The Australian agribusiness expects underlying EBITDA to land around the midpoint of its $200 million to $240 million guidance range, implying earnings of about $220 million. Underlying net profit after tax is still forecast at $20 million to $50 million.

The outlook includes about $5 million of one-off restructuring costs incurred during fiscal 2026 and remains dependent on grain export timing and volumes, supply-chain margins and opportunities emerging from the new season in the fourth quarter.

Transformation Benefits Ahead of Target

GrainCorp said its group-wide Business Transformation Program remains on track to deliver $12 million of annualised run-rate benefits by the end of fiscal 2026, exceeding the upper end of its previous commitment.

The company is targeting a $20 million to $30 million uplift in through-the-cycle EBITDA by the end of fiscal 2028, reflecting benefits it expects to retain across changing crop and commodity cycles.

The savings program is becoming increasingly important as GrainCorp balances operating efficiencies against rising technology investment.

SAP Rollout Delayed

The first release of GrainCorp’s systems transformation, covering its Nutrition and Energy division, has been pushed into the second quarter of calendar 2027.

The project will replace an ageing SAP system and had previously been scheduled for deployment in the second half of 2026.

GrainCorp said late-stage testing prompted it to extend the timetable and move implementation until after harvest, reducing the operational risk of introducing the system during a critical trading period.

Spending in the second half of 2026 remains unchanged at about $25 million. However, the company now expects to spend a further $30 million to $35 million in fiscal 2027 to complete the first release, representing an increase of about $30 million from its previous expectations.

A second release covering the Agribusiness division has been deferred, with management instead prioritising operating-model improvements.

Restructure Completed

GrainCorp has also completed an organisational review aimed at simplifying decision-making and improving coordination across its east coast Australian network and corporate functions.

About 80 roles were affected by the changes, which have now been fully implemented.

The company expects the revised structure to support better execution, safety, customer service and financial performance, while it continues to identify further cost reductions.

Crop Conditions Support Outlook

Seasonal conditions have remained supportive across New South Wales and Victoria, although production in Queensland has been affected by drier weather.

ABARES’ September forecast put the east coast winter crop at 26.6 million tonnes, 12% above its June estimate.

GrainCorp is also assessing export opportunities for the new crop following stronger global commodity prices, providing a potential source of upside heading into the end of the financial year.

The company is scheduled to report its fiscal 2026 results on November 12.