Ardea Resources (ASX: ARL) Scandium Study Models US$510m NPV

Ardea Resources has outlined a potentially high-return scandium by-product operation at its proposed Goongarrie Hub nickel-cobalt development, with an independent scoping study estimating a post-development net present value of US$509.8 million.

The preliminary study models a dedicated scandium recovery circuit costing US$73.5 million, with an internal rate of return of 59.6% at a 7% discount rate. Annual operating costs are estimated at US$16.2 million over a 40-year operating life.

Those economics assume annual production of 29.96 tonnes of scandium oxide, a long-term price of US$2,000 per kilogram and recovery of less than 70%. The model reports US$43.8 million in annual revenue net of costs and a C1 cash cost of US$541 per kilogram.

The figures relate only to the scandium circuit. They exclude the substantial mining, high-pressure acid leach processing and infrastructure expenditure required for the broader Goongarrie Hub development, which remains focused on nickel and cobalt.

Integration drives the opportunity

Rather than developing a standalone scandium mine, Ardea proposes extracting the metal from barren process liquor generated by the planned nickel-cobalt plant. The study selected ion exchange as the preferred extraction technology and scandium oxide as the sale product.

Its base case uses less than 25% of the available barren-liquor flow, providing scope to process more material if future technical and commercial work supports expansion. The production target is underpinned by Measured and Indicated resources.

Goongarrie Hub has a scandium Mineral Resource of 158 million tonnes at 25 parts per million, containing an estimated 3,940 tonnes. This resource sits within the nickel-cobalt mineralisation, allowing the proposed circuit to share infrastructure and utilities with the larger operation.

The economics are most sensitive to scandium pricing and production rates. That matters because scandium is a small and relatively opaque market in which customer pricing is generally negotiated directly. Current global annual production was estimated in the study at between 60 and 80 tonnes as of February 2026, making Ardea’s modelled output substantial relative to existing supply.

Early-stage estimates require validation

The study is an AACE Class 5 assessment based on limited engineering definition. Estimates at this level typically have an accuracy range of minus 30% to plus 50%, and the recovery assumptions have not yet been validated using project-specific metallurgical testwork.

Ardea will now undertake laboratory testing on representative Goongarrie Hub process liquor. Work will assess ion-exchange resins, solvent extraction, impurity removal and the production of scandium oxide before engineering advances to a Class 4 level.

No development decision has been made and no funding strategy has been determined. Progress also depends on the wider Goongarrie Hub project proceeding, along with financing, approvals and successful technical studies.

The study was commissioned and managed solely by Ardea. Joint venture partner Sumitomo Metal Mining said neither Kalgoorlie Nickel nor the Japanese consortium participated in its preparation or endorsed its economics.